The John Deere Classic may not boast the strongest field compared to other PGA Tour events, but it still carries significant rewards for the winner, including a full 500 FedEx Cup points and a standard 2-year exemption on the PGA Tour. The tournament is held at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, a venue known for its low-scoring potential on the accommodating D.A. Weibring Par 71 design. The field is wide open, with Patrick Cantlay withdrawing earlier in the week.
While some believe it to be more challenging to handicap the tour events that lack a ton of star power, there is value to be found in the middle to higher-odd players. The key to this event’s success is identifying players with the motivation and the proper skill set to deliver a birdie-heavy performance. The competition at the John Deere Classic is intense, as a victory here can be a career-defining achievement, particularly appealing to those from America’s Midwest, where the tournament garners considerable interest. Let’s take a look at this week’s card, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Neal Shipley, a promising 23-year-old rookie, enters this week’s tournament as a notable long shot, with +8000 odds to secure a win. Shipley has demonstrated remarkable prowess throughout the spring and summer, shining on pro golf’s most prestigious stages. His impressive performances earned him low amateur honors at both the Masters and the U.S. Open, setting a solid foundation before he turned professional.
Shipley made his professional debut last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, achieving a respectable T20 finish. We’ve seen him perform in some of the most star-studded fields, so he is a threat to strike the ball well and compete here at the John Deere. At +300, there is a lot of value in Shipley to finish T20. And if you’re feeling adventurous, it may not hurt to sprinkle a bit on that +8000 outright winner line!
Joel Dahmen’s upward trajectory continues into 2024, beginning with an 11th-place finish at The Players Championship. Dahmen is on a seven-tournament payout streak and has made it into the late Sunday groups in his last two appearances.
Dahmen was in third place at the RBC Canadian Open after rounds of 67 and 65, where he finished 10th. And he’s coming off of a T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, scoring 64 and 68 in the middle rounds, which tied him for the best combined Friday/Saturday performance alongside notable players like Cam Davis and Erik van Rooyen. A forgettable 76 on Sunday was a big letdown, but Dahmen is now striking the ball exceptionally well.
Last week in Detroit, Dahmen ranked 10th in driving accuracy, 4th in greens in regulation, and 14th in strokes gained tee to green. His challenge remains maintaining his composure with the putter under pressure, which has been a decisive factor in past performances. But it’s his iron play that makes him appealing this week. He could be in contention late Sunday afternoon if he gets the flat stick going.
What sticks out is Dahmen’s past success with the putter at TPC Deere Run in 2018. Dahmen managed a T2 finish at this venue alongside Francesco Molinari when he excelled in driving accuracy, greens in regulation, ball striking, and tee-to-green. He gained 2.5 strokes on the greens at TPC Deere Run in 2018. If he has the putter going this weekend, Dahmen will be in contention come Sunday.
Seamus Power is another player on tour who looks to be settling in and is playing some of his better golf. Power was in the final Sunday group at the Valspar Championship, where he finished 26th, and was 7th after 54 holes at the high-profile RBC Heritage, finishing 12th. He’s also finished 16th at the Wells Fargo Championship, 27th at The Memorial, and 20th at the Travelers Championship, where he closed with an impressive Sunday score of -7/63. While his recent form is solid, if not spectacular, it’s important to remember that these results came against some of the best players on tour during signature events.
Power’s PGA Tour victories have come at venues similar to those of the John Deere Classic, with similar fields. When he’s won, it’s at tournaments with reduced fields that require elite scoring. His wins include scores of -21 at the 2021 Barbasol Championship and -19 at the 2022 Bermuda Championship.
What is attractive regarding Power is his history at TPC Deere Run. He’s put together some excellent showings, including finishes of 25th in 2017, 16th in 2018, 8th in 2021, and 13th in 2023. Among those with multiple appearances at this venue, Power ranks 13th for strokes gained in total. This is precisely what we’re looking for when identifying someone who could emerge victorious this weekend in Illinois.
Davis Thompson may not be well-known on tour just yet, but the 25-year-old from Atlanta, Georgia, is putting together an excellent 2024 season and seems only to be getting better.
Davis finished T-9 at the U.S. Open, followed by a T-2 finish at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. These strong performances can be attributed to his excellent iron play, which we greatly value at TPC-Deere Run. Currently, the 25-year-old ranks inside the top 25 in strokes gained from tee to green, with a rate of 0.414, and in greens in regulation percentage at 68.30%.
Thompson’s current form and longer odds provide a ton of value and upside in this week’s less-than-stellar field at the John Deere Classic. Expect Thompson to be in the mix on Sunday.
