The Boston Celtics have clinched their 18th NBA championship, overcoming the Dallas Mavericks in a five-game finals series. However, their journey to defend the title promises to be challenging, with several strong contenders emerging from both conferences. With the NBA Draft completed and NBA free agency off to a hot start, NBA Championship odds have continued to jump all over.
In the East, the New York Knicks have bolstered their roster by acquiring Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets and re-signing OG Anunoby. Adding to the competition, the Philadelphia 76ers made a significant splash on the first day of free agency, securing nine-time All-Star Paul George with a four-year max contract.
The signing of Paul George has significantly improved the 76ers’ championship prospects, shifting their odds from +1500 to +800, now tied for third on the board. In addition to signing Paul George, the Sixers secured franchise cornerstone Tyrese Maxey with a max extension.
This means the trio of George, Maxey, and former NBA MVP Joel Embiid is set to compete for the long haul. Conversely, the Clippers’ title odds have worsened, falling from +3500 to +4500.
Searching For and Creating Value in NBA Future Plays
For some, it’s entirely too early to start looking at NBA futures. There are still unsigned free agents, many star players are getting ready to play in the Olympics, where injuries can happen, and some players are still recovering from last year’s injuries. There is indeed a laundry list of unknowns before the start of the 2025 NBA season, but this is also where value can be found.
By playing NBA futures this early, you can create actual in-season value with potential hedges as the reality of your future bets begins to take shape.
Perhaps you realize you have an excellent number with an emerging contender and can find some hedge value. Or maybe all the plays are garbage and will be throw-aways, but there is a lot of fun and strategy in playing early futures in any sport, especially the NBA.
2025 NBA Champion Futures
The current favorite to win the 2025 NBA title will be the defending champion Boston Celtics. There is a lot to love about this Celtics squad. They return virtually the entire roster from a dominant regular season and post-season squad, including Al Horford, rumored to be mulling retirement, and Kristaps Porzingis, recovering from surgery. But there isn’t much value in their current odds at +295. That’s probably exactly where the number should sit for a while.
It seems unlikely that these odds could go any lower, meaning this is probably the worst possible number you could get on the Celtics. An injury or a sluggish start would most likely get you a better in the mid-300s, if not better. Of course, there is a chance that they go full-scorching earth, start 20-4, and suddenly this +295 looks appealing. When it comes to NBA futures, if I like the favorite, I’ll play it for twice as much as I would my longer-odd plays. I’ll use the favorite as insurance, but I’ll root for one of my longer-odd plays to hit. I will most likely secure some insurance in the Celtics around +295
Let’s look at some value plays for the 2024 NBA Championship. All of the odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oklahoma City Thunder +850
Initially holding the fourth-best odds behind the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves, the Oklahoma City Thunder surged to the third slot after a blockbuster trade brought in 30-year-old star Alex Caruso. This roster keeps getting better. They also added former Knicks big man Isaiah Hartenstein.
The @okcthunder already getting the barks out after Game 1 🤣🐶 pic.twitter.com/5Vsxpg6ShJ
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) April 22, 2024
The Thunder defied expectations last season. Entering the preseason with the 19th best odds (+10000) to win the 2024 NBA championship and an over/under of just 44.5 wins, the Thunder exceeded all predictions.
They finished the regular season at 57-25 and became the youngest team to capture the first seed in the Western Conference and, subsequently, the youngest top seed to win a playoff series. The Thunder ultimately fell to the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals, and their lack of experience seemed to show.
2023-24 was a historic season for OKC, marked by the stellar performances of young stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. The Thunder dominated with a No. 3 ranking in offensive rating, No. 4 in defensive rating, and No. 3 in points per game.
They opened strong early in the season and maintained their momentum, rewriting the narrative for the franchise. Now that this young squad possesses some post-season experience, they are extremely dangerous heading into 2025. +850 is excellent value for this young juggernaut.
Indiana Pacers +6000
The Indiana Pacers might be the best value on the board currently. +6000 is a mighty high number for a team that made a run to the conference finals last year. While they did get swept by the Boston Celtics, they battled and held leads in every single game. And just like OKC, they gained valuable playoff experience.
The Pacers started the off-season by extending Obi Toppin and Pascal Siakam. This ensures that they return just about the same rotation that made the deep playoff run in 2024. An injury late in the Celtics series to star Tyrese Haliburton allowed PG Andrew Nembhard to showcase his ability as an emerging star. Adding Big East Player of the Year Tristan Newton could eventually emerge as the steal of the 2024 NBA draft.
Pascal Siakam ✅💵
Siakam finishes with 4 assists as the Pacers beat the Knicks in game 7 pic.twitter.com/hEV1189PF5 https://t.co/fy0S8JtEzD
— Legacy Locks (@_LegacyLocks) May 19, 2024
But the reason I love this play is what the Pacers had to do last year to reach the Eastern Conference finals. As the No. 6 seed, the Pacers had to square off against the top three seeds in the East to reach the NBA Finals. And they almost pulled it off.
They handled the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, winning four games to two in that series. In the Eastern semis, they went into Madison Square Garden to knock off the No. 2 seed New York Knicks in a wild game seven on the road. This dangerous squad now has postseason experience, and some believe they can make a serious run at an NBA title. With these odds, I’m one of them.
New York Knicks +950
I thought this number might be around +1100 just behind the Minnesota Timberwolves, but there is still enough value here to play it. I think the Knicks could eventually sit right behind the Celtics at +400 to +650, so this +950 would look very nice.
I’m not concerned with what the Sixers have done with adding Paul George. I just don’t believe in that Philly squad. I still think this Knicks team is better from top to bottom. I see some value in the fifth-best odds in the NBA and third-best in the East for the Knicks.
New York made a significant offseason splash by trading for star forward Mikal Bridges, reuniting him with former Villanova teammates Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo. The Knicks’ front office didn’t stop there, securing OG Anunoby with a massive five-year contract extension, keeping another elite two-way forward on the roster.
The Nova Knicks add another 🔥
Mikal Bridges joins his former Villanova teammates in New York 🍎 pic.twitter.com/ZEYpGFpEYI
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) June 26, 2024
These moves made it increasingly difficult to retain starting center Isaiah Hartenstein, who ended up signing a three-year, $87 million deal with the Thunder. But the Knicks made their postseason run last season with a banged-up roster, including the absence of star Julius Randle.
If they can stay healthy, and the Celtics aren’t as fortunate with their health as last season, the Knicks could emerge as the front-runners in the East heading into the postseason.
