The Bills vs. Dolphins square off on Thursday Night Football, and we have the Bills vs. Dolphins predictions, picks, and best bets.
An AFC East powerhouse will secure a crucial early-season divisional win as the Buffalo Bills travel to South Florida to face the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 2.
Both teams are co-favorites to win the AFC East at +180 odds on DraftKings, with the 0-1 New York Jets close behind at +190. The winner will gain an early advantage in the divisional race and hold a key tie-breaking edge to start the 2024 season.
However, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has historically struggled against the Bills, posting a 1-6 record with a 61.1% completion rate and a 6:7 TD/INT ratio. Tagovailoa has also gone under 265 passing yards in five of those seven games, averaging just 207.8 yards per game. On the two occasions, he exceeded 265 yards, most of which were garbage-time yards during blowout losses.
The Bills’ defense has found a way to hold down this potent Dolphins offense.
Buffalo topped Miami at Hard Rock Stadium last season, led by standout performances from Jordan Poyer, Taylor Rapp, and Stefon Diggs—all of whom are no longer on the team. While Allen willed the Bills to a win against Arizona, Miami presents a different challenge. A healthy Jaylen Waddle elevates the Dolphins’ offense, and the addition of veteran Calais Campbell strengthens their defense under Mike McDaniel.
So, what are the predictions and picks for the Bills vs. Dolphins on Thursday night?
Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Preview
All Bills vs. Dolphins odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024.
| Team |
Spread |
Moneyline |
Total |
| Buffalo Bills |
+2.5 (-115) |
+112 |
Over 50.5 (-105) |
| Miami Dolphins |
-2.5 (-105) |
-132 |
Under 50.5 (-115) |
- Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami, Florida
- Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, partly cloudy
Bills Have Dominated Dolphins as of Late
The Buffalo Bills have dominated their rivalry with the Miami Dolphins lately, winning four straight and 11 of the last 12 matchups, including playoffs. Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 13-2 against Miami since 2017. During that span, the Bills have scored 475 points against the Dolphins, the most any team has scored against a single opponent.
Buffalo is also undefeated on Thursday Night Football in the Josh Allen era. In six Thursday games with Allen under center, the Bills have scored 24 or more points and gained 350-plus yards, with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points.
Allen has been incredibly dominant against Miami, posting an 11-2 record with 41 total touchdowns in 13 games. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all 13 contests. On the other hand, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills, throwing seven interceptions—the most against any opponent—and being sacked 12 times. Tagovailoa’s last Thursday night appearance was in 2022, a game to forget, as the Dolphins lost 27-15 to the Bengals, and he was carted off the field with a head/neck injury.
| Game # |
Team |
Date |
Record |
Home/Away |
Opponent |
Result |
Win % |
TD |
1st Downs |
Offensive Yards |
Opponent Offense |
3rd Down % |
4th Down % |
| 1 |
Bills |
1/7/2024 |
1-0 |
Away |
MIA |
W 21-14 |
1.000 |
3 |
26 |
473 |
275 |
60.0% |
33.3% |
| 2 |
Bills |
10/1/2023 |
1-0 |
Home |
MIA |
W 48-20 |
1.000 |
6 |
24 |
414 |
393 |
50.0% |
— |
| 3 |
Bills |
1/15/2023 |
1-0 |
Home |
MIA |
W 34-31 |
1.000 |
4 |
25 |
423 |
231 |
56.3% |
0.0% |
| 4 |
Bills |
12/17/2022 |
1-0 |
Home |
MIA |
W 32-29 |
1.000 |
4 |
29 |
446 |
405 |
57.1% |
— |
| 5 |
Bills |
9/25/2022 |
0-1 |
Away |
MIA |
L 19-21 |
.000 |
2 |
31 |
497 |
212 |
61.1% |
66.7% |
| 6 |
Bills |
10/31/2021 |
1-0 |
Home |
MIA |
W 26-11 |
1.000 |
3 |
24 |
351 |
262 |
46.2% |
0.0% |
| 7 |
Bills |
9/19/2021 |
1-0 |
Away |
MIA |
W 35-0 |
1.000 |
5 |
21 |
314 |
216 |
53.8% |
100.0% |
Bills and Dolphins Betting Trends
| Trend |
Team |
| Buffalo are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against Miami |
Buffalo |
| The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last six games |
Buffalo |
| In their five matchups across the previous three seasons, Buffalo has the better record at 4-1 |
Buffalo |
| Buffalo was the favorite in all five matchups. They covered twice. |
Buffalo |
| Miami are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games against AFC East opponents |
Miami |
| Miami are 9-2 SU in their previous 11 games at home |
Miami |
| This is the first time the Dolphins have been favored vs. the Bills since January 2021 |
Miami |
| Games have gone over the listed total in three of the last five matchups |
Both Teams |
It’s important to note that the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 AFC East matchups and 9-2 straight up (SU) in their previous 11 games at Hard Rock Stadium.
Both teams come into this Week 2 showdown following Week 1 victories. Buffalo overcame an early deficit at home to beat Arizona, with Josh Allen accounting for four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) to propel the Bills past a tough Cardinals defense. Meanwhile, Miami edged Jacksonville with a last-second field goal after holding the Jaguars scoreless in the second half despite giving up 17 points in the first.
Miami went 6-2 ATS as home favorites last season, and with momentum on their side, I expect that trend to continue. Bet on the Dolphins to cover the spread as favorites in Week 2.
Prediction for Bills vs. Dolphins
I’m not going to overcomplicate this. Yes, the Bills lost a lot on the offensive side of the ball in the offseason, but they still have weapons. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are both viable pass-catching threats, along with rookie wide receiver Keion Coleman. James Cook has the chance to emerge as one of the top pass-catching backs in the NFL. Most importantly, they still have one of the best quarterbacks in professional football.
The Bills looked sluggish and sloppy last week in a come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. It was all about Allen. The star quarterback has a knack for willing the Bills to victory and shines when the lights are brightest, which means primetime games against division opponents.
Until Tagovailoa shows he can perform in the primetime and lead his team to big-time wins, the Dolphins are a fade against competent teams for me.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Dolphins 24
Best Bet: Bills +2.5
