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College Football Week 3 Picks and Best Bets

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College football Week 3 picks and best bets are here as we prepare for an exciting Week 3 in the 2024 college football season. 

We’ve seen significant shakeups in the top 25, with some preseason top-10 teams falling entirely out of the rankings while others have climbed into the top 10. As the season progresses, teams are jockeying for position in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, where early-season upsets and standout performances have reshaped the national landscape. The race to secure a playoff spot is heating up, and every week feels pivotal as teams look to solidify their standing among the nation’s best.

In Week 3, we’re looking for the best bets across the college football landscape. So, what are the Week 3 college football picks and best bets?

College Football Week 3 Picks and Best Bets

Colorado vs. Colorado State

  • Spread
    Colorado -7
  • Moneyline
    Colorado -275, Colorado State +220
  • Over/Under
    58.5
  • Game time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Canvas Stadium | Fort Collins, Colo.
  • How to Watch
    CBS

Since Coach Prime took over, the Colorado Buffaloes have only secured two wins by eight or more points: a 36-14 victory over Nebraska and last year’s 43-35 overtime thriller against Colorado State.

Colorado’s performance against the spread (ATS) is a growing concern for bettors, as they are 0-2 ATS this season. Last week’s loss to Nebraska, where the Buffaloes were physically outmatched, has caused some to lose confidence in them. However, Colorado State doesn’t present the same level of physicality, making this a more favorable matchup for the Buffs.

With superior skill players and strong protection for Shedeur Sanders, Colorado should take control of this game, similar to their season opener against North Dakota State. Despite being on the road, the Buffaloes are well-positioned to succeed.

With 58% of the tickets and 60% of the handle on Colorado State as home underdogs, I’m fading the public. Colorado will secure their first cover of the season.

The Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 23

Best Bet: Colorado -7

UCF vs. TCU

  • Spread
    UCF -2.5
  • Moneyline
    UCF -140, TCU +115
  • Over/Under
    61.5
  • Game time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, Texas
  • How to Watch
    Fox

UCF leads the nation with an impressive 419 rushing yards per game, though this has come against weaker opponents in New Hampshire and Sam Houston. With a deep and talented backfield featuring RJ Harvey, Peny Boone, Myles Montgomery, and Johnny Richardson, the Knights’ ground game appears to be a legitimate threat.

If UCF can replicate its rushing success on the road against TCU, it will mark its strongest statement of the season. TCU’s defense struggled significantly in 2023, allowing 160.9 rushing yards per game (81st nationally) and 421.5 total yards per game, which contributed to its 5-7 finish.

Though TCU limited Stanford to just 116 rushing yards in the season opener, they still allowed 27 points. This matchup has been tight in betting circles, with the favorite flipping since the opening line.

Ultimately, UCF’s potent ground game should prove too much for TCU. While Josh Hoover is expected to keep things competitive for the Horned Frogs, UCF’s rushing attack gives them the edge to secure the road victory.

The Prediction: UCF 34, TCU 27

Best Bet: UCF -2.5

Indiana vs. UCLA

  • Spread
    Indiana -3
  • Moneyline
    Indiana -160, UCLA +130
  • Over/Under
    46.5
  • Game time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif.
  • How to Watch
    NBC

Washington transfer Ethan Garbers threw for 272 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while adding 47 rushing yards in UCLA’s narrow 16-13 win over Hawaii. Despite the turnovers, Garbers showcased his dual-threat ability, contributing through the air and on the ground. However, UCLA must control the ball against Indiana’s stout defense, making Garbers a risky DFS play as the Bruins may lean more heavily on the run game.

Indiana enters this Week 3 matchup after steamrolling Western Illinois, outgaining them 703-121 and forcing three turnovers in a 77-3 rout. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Justice Ellison had an efficient day with 117 yards and two touchdowns on just nine carries.

This matchup shapes up as a physical, defensive battle. Coming off a bye after a lackluster performance against Hawaii, UCLA struggled against the Rainbow Warriors’ defense, which forced two interceptions, logged six tackles for loss, and stuffed nearly half of UCLA’s rushing attempts. If Hawaii’s front seven could cause that much disruption, Indiana’s defense could be even more dominant.

Head coach DeShaun Foster and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy initially aimed to emphasize the run game, but falling behind against Hawaii forced UCLA into passing situations. It could spell trouble for the Bruins if they face a similar deficit against Indiana. Curt Cignetti’s defensive prowess from James Madison has carried over to Bloomington. Though UCLA presents a tougher challenge, I expect the Hoosiers to make a statement with a strong defensive showing in Week 3.

The Prediction: Indiana 23, UCLA 16

Best Bet: Indiana ML -160

Memphis vs. Florida State

At this point in the season, betting on Florida State feels risky, given their back-to-back losses. However, the key to successful wagering is finding value; there might be some with the Seminoles here.

Had this line been available in July, Florida State would likely have been favored by around -24 points. While they’ve underperformed in 2024, it’s worth considering whether Georgia Tech and Boston College are stronger than initially expected. Both teams have showcased solid quarterback play and defenses, positioning themselves as potential ACC challengers.

Another crucial factor is head coach Mike Norvell, who has experience turning programs around. He built Memphis into a contender, leading them to a 12-2 season and Cotton Bowl appearance in 2019. His 23-4 record at Florida State over the last two seasons reflects his ability to right the ship.

With the pendulum poised to swing back, Norvell has an opportunity to stabilize the season, starting with this weekend’s game against his former team. While it may not be a blowout, Florida State should do enough offensively and rely on their defense to create turnovers and short-field opportunities.

Expect the Seminoles to secure their first win of 2024 on Saturday and cover the spread in the process.

Score Prediction: Florida State 31, Memphis 17

Best Bet: Florida State -7

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