Just a few years ago, it seemed unfathomable that Bill Belichick could possibly be fired. The man who has won more championships in his sport than any other coach felt untouchable. Yet, the seat many used to refer to as a throne is hotter than ever. But is it the right move? And if it is, what is the next move?
How Did We Get Here?
The Patriots are in unchartered territory as the most dominant professional football franchise in the 2000s is about to land a top 3 pick for the first time since 1993 when they selected Drew Bledsoe first overall out of Washington State. They haven’t reached the playoffs since 2021, and they finish up their third losing season in the last four years with the rival Jets in week 18. But is it awful enough to fire the most decorated professional football coach of all time?
No one can argue that things aren’t terrible right now in New England. By all accounts, Mac Jones has had any confidence that he had completely shattered, and he looks like anything but a cornerstone of an organization. The offense has been utterly abysmal since Tom Brady left, and Bill Belichick, the GM, is mostly to blame. It bears mentioning that 28 other organizations haven’t won a Super Bowl since the Patriots last won theirs, but this fanbase has been spoiled, and they want to keep winning.
The toxic Boston sports media fueled a large part of the narrative to run Belichick out of New England. They tried to pronounce him dead on multiple occasions, and then he seemingly always quieted the angry mob with another Super Bowl title. Let’s remember when Boston sports media said it was time for Tom Brady to get out of town starting in 2019.
4 years ago today. https://t.co/1YlgBoFTv2
— Boston Radio Watch®️ (@bostonradio) January 6, 2024
Just like Belichick, they were constantly inexplicably giddy to be the first to announce the downfall of the great Tom Brady. Felgar, Maz, O’Shaughnessy, and a slew of other flapping heads were upset about Brady reportedly focusing on his brand TB12 with his trainer Alex Guerrero. Brady was apparently too focused on documentaries and his family and was washed up right before he left town to win his seventh Super Bowl in Tampa. This is the same Tom Brady they wanted out, who is suddenly the only reason Belichick won in the first place, according to this group more recently. Suddenly, the Patriot Way was never about Belichick and only about Brady, despite the fact that they spent almost two years spewing the opposite narrative before Brady’s departure.
Is It ALL Bad?
Bill Belichick is still the best defensive mind on the planet. The Patriots are currently ranked sixth in total defense. Having a top-ten defense with an offense that offers next to no help is impressive. And keep in mind this is a defense without two of their defensive stars; rookie CB Christian Gonzalez and star edge rusher Matthew Judon were both lost early on to season-ending injuries. Bill remains the best defensive game planner in the universe and continues to give great opposing QBs and offenses some problems. People quickly reference the Cowboys and Saints game, but those were outliers. Look at what his defense has done against the best QBs on their schedule compared to the rest of the league. Vs. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Tua and the Dolphins twice, Josh Allen and the Bills twice, Justin Herbert and the Chargers, and Mahomes and the Chiefs, they averaged a combined 6.8 yards per attempt, 89.1 passer rating, and +0.03 EPA per play. If you compare that to their averages against the rest of the league when they had 7.5 YPA, 96.6 rating, and a +0.08 EPA per play, it’s clear Bill is better than most against the elite QBs in the league. That’s how you get a top-ten defense.
And it’s not just this year. The Patriots were 8th in total team defense in 2022 despite an epically bad offense once again. We keep hearing that the game has passed Bill by, and aside from the above stats that prove that isn’t true, he’s only five years removed from one of the most dominant defensive performances and game plans in Super Bowl history against the Rams. A Rams squad widely regarded as the premier offense in the league under offensive guru Sean McVay, a Rams team that scored 48 points against the 49ers and 54 points against the Chiefs before being stifled to just three points in the Super Bowl against Bill’s Patriots. It was a genuinely historic defensive performance that led the Patriots to their sixth Super Bowl title.
If Belichick Is Fired, What Next?
So, let’s say the Patriots do move on from the best coach in the history of the sport. What’s the next move? Every single idea that has been floated out so far makes very little sense. Let’s start with who seems to be the most popular public choice: Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel is an ex-Patriot and was a beloved player, maybe more beloved by Patriots owner Robert Kraft than anyone. But after that, where is the appeal? After firing the best defensive mind alive, your big move is hiring another defensive mind with no accolades and an underwhelming resume. Why? Mike Vrabel hasn’t led the Tennessee Titans to the playoffs since 2021, the same year as Belichick’s last trip, except Vrabel lacks the eight Super Bowl rings. Mike Vrabel is eight games over .500 in his six years at the helm for the Titans, with two playoff wins. He also told the world that Treylon Burks was better than A.J. brown. It kind of sounds like Belichick but significantly worse. This is the savior in New England? Yikes.
Admittedly frustrated amidst 18 losses in the past 23 games, Mike Vrabel is slated for regular year-end meetings this week with #Titans brass that could raise difficult questions about how — or perhaps if — the sides should move forward together.https://t.co/iO6KRCTQUY
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 7, 2024
Let’s start with another name picking up steam in New England thanks to the sometimes laughable Boston sports media, Ben Johnson. It’s borderline ridiculous to think about Ben Johnson replacing Bill Belichick. Ben Johnson has been the offensive coordinator in Detroit for the last two seasons, and they’ve been good. He’s a hot name right now due to the Lion’s success, as he’s regarded as an offensive wizard. But the reality is that unless he’s bringing the Lion’s loaded skill players and all-pro QB with him, this move feels like an implosion waiting to happen. Aside from his time with the Lions, Ben Johnson has never been a part of winning football organizations. Here is what Ben Johnson’s coaching journey looks like and how the teams fared on the field before 2022 with the Lions:
Boston College 19-19
Miami Dolphins 52-60
Detroit Lions (hired by M. Patricia)31-49-2
Total 102-128-2
It would be a wild move to replace Bill Belichick with someone who has never held a head coaching job and has never won with consistency until two years ago. Would Ben Johnson as an OC excite me? Sure. As the next head coach in New England, not quite.
Lastly, let’s touch on Jerod Mayo because addressing the Josh McDaniel fans is lower than I’m willing to go. Jerod Mayo is the current linebackers coach in New England and, by all accounts, is loved by his players. But removing Bill Belichick to hand over the reins to someone already in the building and on the same side of the ball would be puzzling. Is he a fresh voice? Of course. Does that help on the offensive side of the ball at all? Only if you hire an offensive-minded general manager. And that brings me to what I think should happen if the Patriots want to get back to a championship caliber.
The Best Option (If Belichick Agrees To It)
Keep the best defensive mind in the game’s history, and get him help where he needs help. In player personnel, especially on the offensive side of the ball. People like Davie Ziegler, Nick Caserio, Scott Pioli, and most recently, Matt Groh have held the Director of Player Personnel title. Scratch that role altogether. Allow Bill to be in the room and involved in the process, but bring in an actual GM—someone with the final say on personnel decisions and a fresh view on the offensive side. Head coaches in the league, even ones with a long tenure, play a vital role in personnel decisions but do not double up as the GM. Belichick had an unprecedented run as the head coach and GM. It will never be replicated. That’s because it is wildly complex to be great at both. But the mistakes made on the offensive side are so long and vast that we’d need another article to cover them all. The QB play is at the center of it. And if the Patriots get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in next year’s draft, that would help a lot. If they get either of those two, and he gets complimented by another top-5 Belichick defense, I think the Patriots will quickly get back in the mix, as we all know a rookie QB’s best friend is a good defense. And with Bill on the sidelines with this current defensive roster, that is almost guaranteed.
But the fact remains that if the Patriots move on from Bill Belichick, he immediately becomes the most sought-after football coach in the game. Organizations in need would do almost anything to get that football mind, with his storied track record, into their building. That alone should make Robert Kraft and the Patriots executives take a second-long look at the decision they have in front of them. If their next answer is referenced in this article and doesn’t include Bill Belichick, things could get worse in New England before they get better, despite having a top-3 pick in next year’s NFL draft. And if that is the case, all of this losing could be for nothing as we watch Belichick break the all-time coaching wins record on another sideline.
