NCAAB: Pitt @ #21 Virginia, Odds, Predictions, Best Bets

Two of the hottest teams in the ACC matchup tonight in Charlottesville, Virginia, for a very important Atlantic Coast Conference battle.

The Pittsburgh Panthers will face off against the Virginia Cavaliers on Tuesday at John Paul Jones Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Virginia enters the game as 6.5-point favorites with a game total set at 122.5 points.

Pittsburgh comes into the matchup with a record of 15-8 SU, 13-10 ATS, and 12-10-1 O/U. They secured a 67-64 victory over NC State last Wednesday and have performed well on the road with a 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS record. In ACC play, they stand at 6-6 and are tied for seventh place.

Virginia boasts a record of 19-5 SU, 14-9-1 ATS, and 10-14 O/U. They clinched an 80-76 win against Florida State on Saturday and remain undefeated at home with a 13-0 SU record, going 9-3-1 ATS. In ACC competition, they hold a 10-3 record, just one game behind the conference leaders.

This matchup marks the first meeting between the two teams this season, with Virginia leading the all-time series 19-5.

This matchup lines up to be the type of spot play we absolutely love, and we’ll tell you why.

Pitt (15-8) @ #21 Virginia (19-5) | ACCN | 7:00 pm |

Looking at the Panthers

Now THAT is a mismatch @jalandlowe pic.twitter.com/5RmkczPMB3

— Pitt Basketball (@Pitt_MBB) February 8, 2024

The 2022-2023 season marked a significant breakthrough for Jeff Capel’s Pitt Panthers, as they experienced a +13 jump in wins. Despite some roster turnover, the Panthers showcased their potential by nearly clinching a share of the ACC regular-season title and securing their first NCAA Tournament victory in nearly a decade. While key contributors from that season have departed, leading scorer Blake Hinson has returned to lead the team.

Although Pitt faced challenges early in ACC play, including losses in their first two conference games, their season took a pivotal turn with a monumental 80-76 road triumph over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium, a venue where they hadn’t secured a victory since 1979. This season-changing win served as a catalyst for the Panthers, igniting a surge in their performance as of late. The Panthers have gone on to win five of their last six games, entering tonight’s ACC matchup on a three-game winning streak.

At the forefront of Pitt’s resurgence is sixth-year Super-Senior Blake Hinson, who has been instrumental in guiding the team. Standing at 6’8″, Hinson is enjoying a career-best season, averaging 17.9 points per game while exhibiting impressive shooting accuracy from beyond the arc at 41.4%. Notably, his standout performance included a 24-point outing in the memorable victory against Duke.

Complementing Hinson in the backcourt are a pair of talented freshmen guards, Carlton Carrington and Jaland Lowe. Despite their youth, both players have made significant contributions to Pitt’s success and resurgence this year. Carrington, known for his versatility, leads the team in assists while showcasing solid offensive skills, while Lowe has emerged as a consistent scorer, registering double-digit points in multiple recent outings, including a notable 20-point display against NC State. Despite their youth and lack of returning minutes, Pitt has been one of the hotter teams in the ACC as of late.

Virginia is a Home Juggernaut

Back in the @AP_Top25 at No. 21! 🔶⚔️🔷 #GoHoos https://t.co/lMDucGOfqb

— Virginia Men’s Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) February 12, 2024

When it comes to conference play, Tony Bennett’s track record speaks volumes.

Virginia’s consistent competitiveness in the ACC, despite varying talent levels, is a testament to Bennett’s coaching prowess. While the Cavaliers faced early-season challenges due to roster turnover, Bennett’s strategic lineup adjustments have led to a serious improvement in offensive performance. Traditionally strong defensively, Virginia’s potential has soared with emerging talents like Isaac McKneeley and Jake Groves contributing on offense.

Against Pitt, expect Virginia to dictate the tempo, aiming to disrupt the Panthers’ offensive rhythm with disciplined defensive play. Known for their transition denial defense, the Cavaliers limit opponents to one shot per possession, emphasizing their defensive tenacity. Despite previous instances of entering the AP Top 25 followed by setbacks, Virginia’s recent climb to No. 21 signifies their resurgent form. And they are just so tough at home.

With an impeccable home record at John Paul Jones Arena, where they boast a 23-game winning streak, the Cavaliers have a formidable advantage. While Pittsburgh has shown promise, Virginia’s consistency and home-court dominance are matched with their defense intensity, and the home crowd presents problems to any opponent.

By The Numbers:

• Virginia leads Pittsburgh 19-5 in the all-time series that dates back to 1957.
• Pitt snapped UVA’s eight-game winning streak in the series in the most recent meeting between these two teams last February.
• UVA has won eight of their last nine games against Pitt and 15 of their last 17.
• Virginia has won each of the last six games against Pittsburgh in Charlottesville.
• Virginia is 12-2 against Pittsburgh since the Panthers joined the ACC ahead of the 2013-2014 season.
• Tony Bennett is 12-3 against Pittsburgh as a head coach.
• Virginia is currently second in the ACC standings with a 10-3 conference record, and Pittsburgh is tied for seventh at 6-6.

UVA entered tonight ranked 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They’re also Top 25 defensively in Effective FG%, Turnover %, 2P%, Block %, and Steal %. And all of those numbers are even better at home. I really like Hinson and how hard this Pitt team plays, but I think the UVA defense at home is too tough tonight. I expected a competitive ACC matchup, but one where the Cavs pull away late at home to get over the number. Give us the Cavs.