The Colts’ projected win total for the 2024 season is set at 8.5. We’ll break down their outlook for the year and analyze whether they’re more likely to exceed or fall short of that mark.
Under new head coach Shane Steichen, the Indianapolis Colts made impressive progress in 2023. After a disappointing four-win season the previous year, the Colts bounced back to secure nine victories.
This turnaround was particularly notable given that rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson started only four games. Despite his limited play, the Colts finished with the 10th-best offense in the league in terms of points scored.
According to Sharp Football, the Colts enter 2024 with the seventh-most manageable schedule in the NFL. So far in camp, the coaching staff and media members surrounding the Colts have raved about the receiving corps led by Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and second-round draft pick Adonai Mitchell out of Texas.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Anthony Richardson, even though his ability to stay healthy is a concern in 2024. Richardson was injured twice in his four starts last year, and his ten rushes in the other two games highlight the unsustainability of such a playing style over an entire season.
Now, Joe Flacco steps in as the backup. Despite a solid run with Cleveland, he’s already 39 years old. If Richardson goes down again, Flacco will operate a different playbook than Richardson.
The AFC Will Be a Dogfight in 2024
Last season, the AFC South remained a three-team race up until the final week of the regular season. The Tennessee Titans, who ended the year at 6-11, were the only team mathematically eliminated before Week 16. Looking ahead to 2024, the division could be even more competitive. It may be the only division in the NFL where every team can realistically make a case for why they could win the title.
Who is going to win the AFC South?
🤘The Texans own the crown. The division runs through Houston.@Djbienaime: "I think the AFC South is going to be an absolute BLOOD BATH."@Cody_Stoots: "I think Jacksonville… their fans are very strange."😂
2023:
🏆Texans
🥈Colts… pic.twitter.com/AKmeplcse0— Will Kunkel (@WillKunkelFOX) July 22, 2024
The Houston Texans enter 2024 as the favorites to win the AFC South after clinching the division title in 2023, with odds currently at +105. Following closely are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who finished 9-8 last season and remained in the hunt for the division crown until the final week; they are listed at +275.
The Colts are next in line with odds of +310, while the Titans, at +1000, are considered the long shot. However, the Titans will still be a formidable opponent in 2024, making the AFC South a highly competitive division. With no clear pushover, the division could resemble the AFC North of recent years, where every team posed a severe challenge.
The Colts 2024 Schedule
The Indianapolis Colts will benefit from a relatively light travel schedule in 2024, covering just 11,497 miles—the third shortest distance in the NFL. This reduced travel load could provide a significant advantage, especially considering the Colts will also face the league’s 10th-easiest schedule, based on last season’s records.
In 2023, the Colts had an even lighter travel itinerary, logging just 7,833 miles and leaving the Eastern Time Zone only twice. This favorable combination of limited travel and a manageable schedule could be crucial to their success this season.
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Sunday, September 08
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vs
 Texans
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11:00 AM
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CBS
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 Tickets from 79 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, September 15
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at
 Packers
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11:00 AM
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FOX
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Tickets from 184 USD |
Lambeau Field
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Sunday, September 22
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vs
 Bears
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11:00 AM
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CBS
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Tickets from 259 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, September 29
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vs
 Steelers
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11:00 AM
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CBS
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Tickets from 120 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, October 06
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at
 Jaguars
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11:00 AM
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CBS
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Tickets from 35 USD |
EverBank Stadium
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Sunday, October 13
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at
 Titans
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11:00 AM
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CBS
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Tickets from 49 USD |
Nissan Stadium
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Sunday, October 20
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vs
 Dolphins
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11:00 AM
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FOX
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Tickets from 92 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, October 27
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at
Texans
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11:00 AM
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CBS
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Tickets from 69 USD |
NRG Stadium
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Sunday, November 03
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at
 Vikings
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12:00 PM
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CBS
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Tickets from 42 USD |
U.S. Bank Stadium
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Sunday, November 10
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vs
 Bills
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12:00 PM
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CBS
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Tickets from 129 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, November 17
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at
 Jets
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7:20 PM
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NBC
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Tickets from 70 USD |
MetLife Stadium
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Sunday, November 24
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vs
 Lions
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12:00 PM
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FOX
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Tickets from 137 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, December 01
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at
 Patriots
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12:00 PM
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CBS
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Tickets from 100 USD |
Gillette Stadium
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Sunday, December 15
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at
 Broncos
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3:25 PM
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CBS
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Tickets from 56 USD |
Empower Field at Mile High
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Sunday, December 22
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vs
Titans
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12:00 PM
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CBS
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Tickets from 55 USD |
Lucas Oil Stadium
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Sunday, December 29
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at
 Giants
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12:00 PM
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—
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MetLife Stadium
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Sunday, January 05, 2025
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vs
Jaguars
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12:00 PM
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—
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Lucas Oil Stadium
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The Colts will face a challenging schedule in 2024 regarding rest between games. With a net rest edge of -17 days, they rank among the bottom three teams in the league. The Colts will only have one game where they benefit from more rest than their opponent, while five of their opponents will have extra rest heading into their matchups. Additionally, the Colts won’t face any teams coming off short rest.
The Colts will kick off their 2024 season at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 8. They will host the Houston Texans in a Week 1 rivalry matchup, a rematch of the 2023 regular-season finale, which decided the AFC South champion.
They’ll face the Texans again on October 27. Other key divisional games include meetings with the Tennessee Titans on October 13 and December 22 and matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars on October 6 and January 5.
The Colts Over/ Under Wins Future
The Colts’ win total over/ under is currently 8.5. The Under is -125, while the over is close to even at -105. All odds are from DraftKings.
It won’t be a popular opinion, but I see the 2024 Indianapolis Colts as a .500 team or worse. While the offense is young and exciting, the secondary is questionable and inexperienced. I think the depth of their division will make winning more than eight games very difficult.
Getting off to a good start is vital for any NFL team, and the Colts will have trouble in the early going. They open the season with two of the more promising teams of 2024, the Texans and Packers, before taking on the much-improved Chicago Bears.
If the Colts will win 9+ games in 2024, I’m struggling to identify where those wins are coming from.
The Play: Colts Under 8.5 Wins (-125)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
