UCF heads to Texas to take on TCU in a Big 12 battle. We have the UCF vs. TCU betting preview, prediction, and best bets for Week 3.
UCF and TCU will open Big 12 play, with both teams aiming to make a strong run to the top of the newly revamped conference.
UCF’s offensive strategy is clear—they’ll lean heavily on their talented backfield, considered one of the best in the country. However, the key question for the Knights is whether their passing game can step up, particularly with transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson, who has been underwhelming in the early part of the 2024 season.
Conversely, TCU, led by sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover, features an explosive offense. Hoover has gotten off to a strong start, giving the Horned Frogs confidence in their passing attack.
Quarterback play may ultimately decide the game, with both teams boasting high expectations and dynamic offenses. UCF will rely on its powerful run game, while TCU will look to ride Hoover’s hot hand in Fort Worth.
UCF vs. TCU Betting Preview
All UCF vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Sept. 11.
- Spread
UCF -2.5
- Moneyline
UCF -140, TCU +115
- Over/Under
61.5
- Game time
7:30 p.m. ET
- Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, Texas
- How to Watch
Fox
TCU initially opened as the favorite in this matchup, but heavy public betting on UCF at +2.5 has caused the line to completely flip. Now, the Horned Frogs find themselves as home underdogs. TCU originally opened as -115 moneyline favorites but shifted to +115 moneyline underdogs.
The total, however, hasn’t seen as much movement as the spread and moneyline. It opened at 62.5 and has only dropped slightly to 61.5.
Prediction for UCF vs. TCU
The focal point of TCU’s run game is Cam Cook, who has racked up 33 carries for 139 yards and four touchdowns.
Conversely, UCF’s quarterback, KJ Jefferson, has yet to hit his stride. He hasn’t surpassed 170 passing yards in UCF’s first two games, though he did exit early in the season-opening blowout of New Hampshire. Jefferson remains one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks and is always a candidate for a big statistical day. The key to this matchup will be whether TCU’s defensive line can slow down UCF’s dominant ground game, which has averaged more than 8 yards per carry through two games.
UCF leads the nation with a staggering 419 rushing yards per game, albeit against weaker opponents in New Hampshire and Sam Houston. With a deep and dynamic backfield featuring RJ Harvey, Peny Boone, Myles Montgomery, and Johnny Richardson, the Knights’ rushing attack looks legitimate.
If they can replicate that success on the road against TCU, it will serve as their strongest statement yet. TCU’s defense struggled against the run in 2023, allowing 160.9 yards per game, ranking 81st nationally, and surrendering 421.5 total yards per game, leading to a 5-7 season.
While TCU limited Stanford to just 116 rushing yards in the season opener, they still allowed 27 points. This game has been truly a coin flip since the opening line, with the favorite flipping.
Ultimately, UCF’s potent ground game should prove too much for TCU. Although Josh Hoover will do his best to keep it close, expect UCF to come out on top in this one on the road.
The Prediction: UCF 34, TCU 27
Best Bet: UCF -2.5
