College Bowl Game Betting Guide: Saturday, Dec 30

We’re Well Into Bowl Season, and We Have a Day Long Betting Guide For You Today!

We’re getting into the meat of Bowl Season with some much-anticipated games happening in the next few days before the National Semifinals take place on January 1st. Today we have four bowl games starting with the Peach Bowl at noon and ending with the Arizona Bowl this afternoon. We have four plays today, so let’s get it!

Peach Bowl | #11 Ole Miss vs #10 Penn State | Atlanta, Georgia | Noon

On paper, these two squads boast nearly identical seasons, both finishing with impressive 10-2 records. Their sole defeats came at the hands of top-10 teams, and they both hold a commendable top-10 strength of record in FBS. As participants in a New Year’s Six bowl game, neither team is significantly hampered by player opt-outs, with the Rebels entering the contest at near full strength.

However, a key distinction emerges when delving into the staffing and defensive composition. Penn State faces the challenge of navigating this matchup without defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who departed for Duke, and a few pivotal defensive players bound for the NFL Draft. There is no denying that the defense has been the strength of this football team as their offense has, throughout the season, struggled to ignite explosiveness and has often leaned on its defense. Yet, with Ole Miss ranking 15th in total offense and 12th in passing efficiency, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, the Nittany Lions’ reliance on their defensive prowess will certainly be tested today.

Ole Miss has been a consistent force in generating significant offensive plays all season, securing the 27th spot in 30+ yard plays and the 8th position in 20+ yard plays. They now face a Penn State defense that has grappled with closing out drives in the red zone, ranking a concerning 113th in red zone defense. While the Rebels’ red-zone offense holds a respectable 43rd position, it appears they should have little difficulty finding the end zone, whether through explosive aerial plays or more traditional red-zone scores.

I think this game comes down to the QB play and the red zone area, a place where Ole Miss has thrived and Penn State has struggled. I don’t expect Ole Miss to go up and down on this vaunted Penn State defense, but I do believe they’re going to keep them in this game. Give me the +6 with Ole Miss.

Music City Bowl | Maryland vs Auburn | Nashville, Tennessee | 2pm

The spotlight is set on the TransPerfect Music City Bowl as the Auburn Tigers and Maryland Terrapins prepare to clash on Saturday. However, the anticipated matchup is marred by the absence of Taulia Tagovailoa, the Big 10’s all-time leading passer, who has opted to focus on NFL Draft preparations, leaving a significant void in the Terrapins’ offense.

Stepping into the shoes of Tagovailoa is redshirt sophomore quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who previously played at Wake Forest. Edwards, with limited playing time in 2022 and 2023, boasts a career passing stat line of 32 of 56 for 310 yards. Unfortunately, his recent performance against Penn State, where he threw for -3 yards and 1 interception, raises concerns about his readiness for the Music City Bowl. While Auburn’s defense may not be as formidable as Penn State’s, Edwards must elevate his play to compete effectively on Saturday. I still like the weapons that surround Edwards Jr.

Auburn secured their bowl spot by winning six games this season, but a closer look at their schedule reveals a lack of victories against quality teams. Notably, they faced six teams that made FBS bowl games this season and lost all six encounters. Their wins came against teams like California, Mississippi State, and Arkansas, all finishing the year with losing records. Quarterback Payton Thorne, leading Auburn’s offense, has shown improvement throughout the year.

Despite not having Tagavailoa and the Auburn offense being nowhere near a juggernaut, I look at the amount of handle and tickets on this under and can’t help but love the over. It’s a true contrarian play, but I believe this game is going to figure out a way to find points and hit this over. Over 47.5

Orange Bowl | #5 Florida State vs #6 Georgia | Miami, Florida | 4pm

There is a reason the spread of this one is almost half the total. Florida State is going to struggle to move the ball. They’re going to struggle to get in the endzone. Florida State backers are going to say this one gets ugly because of all of the opt-outs. And they have a point. But I think FSU would have been in trouble if all of their healthy players played. They looked atrocious in the ACC title game against Louisville when they couldn’t even throw for 100 yards. The same Louisville team that just gave up six passing TDs to USC’s backup QB. I’m not overthinking this. UGA hammers them. UGA -20.

Arizona Bowl |  Toledo vs Wyoming | Tucson, Arizona | 4:30

If you have followed me whatsoever in the last couple of years, you’d know I love MAC and Mountain West football. But this year was a down year for the MAC in my opinion. So an 11-win Toledo team doesn’t really jump at me. We’ve been on Wyoming a few times this year, and we’re going back to the well. The nice thing about this bowl game is we have no opt-outs.  But we do have two massive transfers for Toledo who will be without starting QB Dequan Finn who threw for 2,651 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions while running for 563 yards and 7 TDs. That’s a big blow. The Rockets are also without leading rusher Peny Boone, who ran for 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns.

On the flip side, Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl, has declared his retirement, adding an emotional layer to the upcoming game as the Cowboys aim to bid farewell to their storied coach on a triumphant note. This game serves as a redemption opportunity for Wyoming, given their loss to Ohio in last year’s edition. While offensive coordinator Tim Polasek has departed for North Dakota State, the Cowboys boast a complete roster with no significant player omissions on either side of the ball.

Throughout the season, Wyoming has showcased an entertaining and exciting style of play. I like this squad and I think they show up in a big way for Coach Bohl, today. Also, this is the Barstool Arizona Bowl, and the commentary will be electric.

Wyoming -3.5.