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Searching For Value In NFC Champion Futures Market Going Into Week 15

Week 15 is upon us in the NFL, and the playoff picture is taking shape, and we are looking at a few surprise NFC conference champion futures.

Yesterday we brought you our AFC Conference Champion Future plays. We love the value of the Broncos at +4000. Now we turn our attention to the NFC.

My personal strategy for Conference Champion and Super Bowl Champion Futures is to place a few plays in the preseason with some longer odds, to place a few as the playoff picture begins to take shape, and then hedge those selections after we find out the playoff seeding. As I write this, we’re sitting on two futures from week 1, both of which are to win the Super Bowl. We have the Eagles at +900 and the Ravens at +1800. The name of the game is finding value, so let’s go value hunting at the current odds as we head into week 15.

NFC Championship Odds

As we head into week 15, here are the current NFC Championship Odds.

NFC Teams   NFC Championship Odds 
49ers +110
Eagles +300
Cowboys +400
Lions  +850
Vikings +4000
Packers +5000
Falcons +5000
Rams +5000
Seahawks +5000
Saints +5000

 

As we mentioned earlier, we already have the Eagles from before week 1 to win the Super Bowl at +900, and we’re happy to have that in our back pocket. So, as I look at this, three teams immediately jump as value plays, and three jump as teams we’re avoiding.

Teams We’re Avoiding

49ers +110

This is based solely on value. I am by no means stating that I don’t think the 49ers can win the NFC, I think they may. But there is just no value here. If you were going to play this, at least go get the 49ers to win the Super Bowl at +260 and you can hedge if they win the NFC title. If they lose the NFC title, then neither were meant to be.

Falcons +5000

We are going to have a +5000 ultra-value play, but the Falcons just aren’t it. I don’t really understand the Falcons. I don’t understand Arthur Smith and I don’t trust Desmond Ridder at QB. I’m not sure why Bijan Robinson has only gone over 18 carries twice this season, especially with a young QB.  This would be a donation at best as I feel they have absolutely no chance to win the NFC.

Saints +5000

Just can not see this. No level of a hot streak can get the Saints to the Super Bowl. It’s shocking they’re in the top 10 on odds but they are. Don’t play this.

Teams With Value We Like

Cowboys +400

I would feel a lot better about this if it were over that +550 mark, but this coaching staff and roster may be too talented for even Mike McCarthy and his wild late-game strategies to screw this up. The Cowboys offense and Dak Prescott have been excellent under new OC Brian Schottenheimer. He took over for Kellen Moore who is leading another dumpster fire in LAC. Dan Quinn may have been the head coach for the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history, but he has this Cowboys defense going. They get after the QB, they can tackle, they can take the ball away, and they do it all with consistency. The Cowboys are playing big-time complimentary football. Either side of that ball is capable of winning them a football game if the other side is having an off night. And when they put it all together, yikes. The Cowboys have a real shot this year.

Lions +850

The Lions may be getting healthy at just the right time. They just got David Montgomery back. They’re getting healthier on the defensive side as well. In my opinion, they’re built very similar to the Cowboys. They don’t force quite as many turnovers as the ‘Boys but they can get after the QB and have made plays all year long. They absolutely have the offensive weapons. Amon-Ra St. Brown has become a legit #1 weapon and TE Sam Laporta is now on everyone’s radar as the rookie has an outside chance to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in his first NFL campaign. The Lions are going to be a squad that no team is excited to be playing come playoff time.

Rams +5000

Just like the Broncos in the AFC at +4000, this is a big-time value play, but it is growing on me. And just like the Broncos, if the playoffs started today, the Rams would be on the outside looking in. The Rams sit outside the playoffs as the 6-7 Packers hold the tie-breaker over them. But the Rams have three very winnable games remaining as they host the Commanders and Saints, and then visit the Giants before a big Week 18 matchup at San Fran. They have the championship pedigree as this is a Rams club that is just two years removed from winning a Super Bowl. If they get in, this won’t be an easy out for anyone.

 

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