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NBA: Mid-season Betting Report – ATS & Totals

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As we’re just about halfway through the NBA season, we’re taking a look at all the NBA betting trends, including against the spread and over/ under. As they say, good teams win, great teams cover.

Yesterday we gave you our college basketball mid-season reports for ATS and totals. Now we’re breaking down the data from a variety of scenarios so far in the NBA this season. We’re looking at the best teams ATS, ATS at home, ATS on the road, ATS as an underdog, and ATS as a favorite. We’re also looking at over/ under records as well as over/ under records on the road and at home. This data can be extremely valuable when you’re looking to back or fade a team. And, of course, Vegas will be adjusting.

Against The Spread

Only three teams are covering above a 60% clip. Two of them may be expected, but the Magic are a bit of a surprise. They sit at 8th in the East, currently at 23-21, but come in at 28-16 ATS. Utah currently ranks 4th in the NBA ATS, but you’ll see they are excellent ATS at home and struggle a bit on the road. The Hawks sit at the bottom of the overall ATS rankings as they only cover 1/4 of their games. They’re by far the worst squad against the spread so far this season. Just above them are the Suns, the Hornets, and, surprisingly, the Bucks.

 

Against The Spread At Home

As we said, Utah just covers at home. The Jazz and the Thunder are the only two teams in the NBA covering at a whopping 70% clip at home so far this season. A total of 11 teams cover above 60% of their games at home. Once again, the Hawks are at the bottom of the list as they only cover in 20% of their home games.

 

 

Against The Spread on the Road

The top road warriors all seemingly exist in the West. The Magic are the only team covering above 60% in the East. The Kings, Thunder, Warriors, and Mavs have all been at 60% or higher on the road ATS so far this season. And take a wild guess who is at the bottom of the list, once again? Yup, the Hawks. They are clearly the most overvalued team ATS in ’23-’24.

 

Against The Spread As An Underdog

Sacramento is back up top with the Warriors as the only two teams in the NBA covering above 70% of their games as an underdog. The Kings have made it look fairly easy as well, covering on average by 5.1 points. Yes, the Hawks are at the bottom ATS as a dog, but it’s the Clippers who have been shockingly bad as a dog. They’re just 1-6 ATS as an underdog.

 

Against The Spread As A Favorite

The Spurs aren’t a favorite very often, but when they are, they cover. Philly has been a favorite 33 times so far this season, and they’ve covered in all but 10 of those matchups. Yes, the Hawks are at the bottom again with a terrible 5-17 record ATS as a favorite, but the Public keeps backing them. The Hornets are the only squad in the NBA yet to cover as a favorite.

 

Over/ Under Records

There are certainly over teams, and there are under teams, but nothing is crazy dominant in either direction. No one covers either side more than 61.9% of the time. The Sixers as home favs and pairing that with the under proves to be a profitable play so far in 2023-2024.

 

Over/ Under Records at Home

This is where we see drastic over/under splits. The Spurs certainly play at a faster pace at home, as 75% of their home games have gone over the total. The Bucks, Pacers, and Kings are also right there as home-over teams. On the flip side, only 26.3% of Grizzlies games have gone over the total at home.

 

Over/ Under on the Road

It’s not very surprising that Detroit is a road-over team, as their defense just doesn’t travel. Their road games go over the total by an average of 7.7 points, which is extremely high. The Lakers join the Pistons as the only other team that has 70+% of their road games go over. Miami has only had 30.4% of their home games go over the total.

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